Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
